Have you tried turning it off and on again?

Source: Juan Ignacio Sánchez Lara

Nowadays it seems like our government just cannot keep its doors open.

February 8th marks the last day that the continuing resolution to fund the government (passed on January 22nd) applies. If Congress cannot pass a spending bill, or Trump does not sign it, then our government will shut down yet again. But what are government shutdowns? Why do they occur? And what do the President and Congress hope to accomplish by shutting down the government?

Government shutdowns are a relatively recent phenomenon; the first was in 1976. This is not due to any political changes, but rather because that was the first year that the government operated under the modern budget rules, as stated in the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.

The budget process, as outlined in the aforementioned law, is as follows:

1. The President, with the help of the Office of Management and Budget, formulates a budget and submits it to Congress.
2. The budget committees in the House and Senate submit budget resolutions, which are then passed by the two houses; this stage does not require the President's approval.
3. Congress uses the budget resolution as a road map for funding bills, which can be vetoed.

The last step is where funding is actually approved, and it is where shutdowns happen. If Congress fails to pass a funding bill, or the President vetoes it, then a section of the government, or the entire thing, goes unfunded. If this funding gap extends into business hours, then nonessential federal employees are furloughed (meaning that they do not go to work).

It should be noted that a failure to pass a funding bill does not necessarily result in a major government shutdown, in which departments close and employees are furloughed for large amounts of time; the Washington Post published a list of every previous funding gap, starting with a budgetary dispute under Gerald Ford in 1976, and it is considerably longer than Reuters' list of those that actually resulted in significant effects.

It should also be noted that there are two distinct types of funding bills: appropriations bills, which last for an entire fiscal year, and continuing resolutions, which are continuations of the previous budget that serve as stopgaps if an appropriations bill is not passed in time. A shutdown only occurs if neither of these are passed.

So why did the government shut down in January, and why might it shut down again? There are four core issues:

1. CHIP is a successful, widely supported children's healthcare program that covers about 9 million children. It actually ran out of funding at the end of September, but lawmakers failed to agree on a deal to fund it. CHIP funding was a major talking point in the January shutdown, with everyone pointing fingers at everyone else for the failure.
2. DACA is a program created by Obama through executive order that allowed children whose parents brought them into the United States illegally. The program was terminated by Trump in September, but a six-month delay was implemented so that Congress could figure out what to do with the 700,000 people who now face deportation (called Dreamers). Most Democratic lawmakers, as well as an unknown number of Republican lawmakers, support clemency for the Dreamers, but Republican leadership, and especially Trump, are opposed to this.
3. Trump's Wall is the $25 billion project promised by Trump on the campaign trail. Most lawmakers are opposed to it, and it will almost certainly not be funded, but Trump has threatened to shut down the government if it is not funded. (Wait, isn't Mexico supposed to be paying for this thing?)
4. The Debt Ceiling is the cap on how much debt the United States can incur. It will have to be raised if the United States wants to avoid the disastrous effects of a default, especially in light of the recent tax cuts, but such an increase is opposed by Tea Party Republicans in the House.

The January shutdown ended with a continuing resolution that directly dealt with only one of these issues: it reauthorized CHIP's funding for the next six years. The only other issue involved was DACA; Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer only agreed to end the shutdown after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised to bring a bill to the Senate floor that would grant clemency to DACA recipients, though it is unclear if such a bill would pass.

So that brings us to today.

In the Senate, things are going as planned: McConnell and Schumer reached a deal that funds the government for two years, increasing spending and the debt ceiling. It does not include funding for Trump's wall.

The House is more interesting. Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi received no promises on a DACA bill from Speaker Paul Ryan, and so took to the House floor for eight hours, reading letters sent to her by Dreamers in the second-longest House speech ever. Ryan supports the deal that passed the Senate, but, due to the Tea Party Republicans who oppose the debt ceiling increase, he needs the support of House Democrats to pass it.

At this point, the spending bill hinges on Ryan. If he promises debate and a vote on a DACA bill to Pelosi, the spending bill will probably pass the House without a hitch. However, if he refuses to budge on DACA, then we will almost certainly face another shutdown. If I had to guess, Ryan will choose the first option, wanting to avoid the negative optics brought on by a shutdown.

And then there's Trump. Trump might veto this bill. Or he might not. I really don't know if he will; he tends to just say things like "I would shut it down over this issue" without really thinking. Hopefully he doesn't; it's been arduous enough reaching a 60-vote deal in the Senate, and it would be even more arduous to reach the 67 votes needed to overcome a veto.

I suppose we'll find out soon enough.